An important forecasting gauge rose in April, suggesting that the U.S. Economy, although weak, does not appear to be in a recession. This is according to the conference board's report released last week, showing that after five months of decline, its leading economic indicators index rose 0.1% in both March & April, suggesting that the economy may not weaken further, and if there is to be a recession, it will be a shallow one even in a worst case scenario.
Founded in 1916, the conference board is a non-profit global business organization, linking over 1600 corporations in over 60 nations, based in New York City, with the mission of spreading knowledge in the market place to enable businesses to better serve society. They are more famously known recently for their "Leading Economic Indicators" report and "Consumer Confidence Index", which are generally used as barometers of economic performance by the private and public sectors.
In addition to the Conference board's report showing a positive trend, Wall Street's overall opinion suggests that credit conditions may be improving as well, and a survey of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) indicates that improvements in the credit markets may materialize later this year.
In spite of these recent positive trends, of the 52 economists surveyed from the NABE still assert that a recession is likely to develop this year. They also anticipate a bottoming out in the housing market as well, and have reduced their economic growth estimates for 2008 and 2009.
This is all still positive news for the real estate industry, as improvement in the credit markets may lead to increased liquidity in the mortgage sector, creating more opportunities for potential buyers to enter the housing market.